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Projections

Catalyst projections on model convergence, agent memory, evaluation, personal intelligence and open versus hosted models.

These are beliefs about direction, not promises about dates.

Models become interchangeable more often#

The strongest model will continue to matter, but many workflows will be able to switch between several capable models. Products designed around one provider’s personality will become fragile. Systems built around portable context, evaluation and orchestration will become more durable.

Memory becomes infrastructure#

Memory will stop being a sidebar feature and become a managed system with write policies, retrieval policies, consolidation, contradiction handling, privacy controls and learned forgetting.

Personal intelligence separates from the interface#

The useful understanding accumulated around a person will increasingly exist outside a single chat application. It will connect to coding agents, research tools, creative systems, browsers and operating environments.

Evaluation moves into the product loop#

Evals will not remain something teams run before release. They will become part of everyday agent operation: checking whether guidance helped, whether an update caused regression and whether the system should abstain.

Taste becomes computable without becoming static#

Systems will become better at representing references, relationships, boundaries and decisions. The goal will not be to freeze a person into a style profile. It will be to represent how their judgment changes across projects and time.

Open and hosted models coexist#

Hosted frontier models will remain attractive for capability and convenience. Open-weight systems will keep expanding control and deployment options. The intelligence layer above them will need to work with both.

The durable asset is accumulated understanding#

As baseline capability spreads, advantage will come from the quality of the system around it: proprietary context, trusted feedback, domain workflows, evaluation data and the ability to improve without losing control.

Catalyst is a bet on that last projection.